This thesis presents a new forecasting technique that estimates energy demand by applying a Bayesian approach to forecasting. We introduce our Bayesian Heating Oil Forecaster (BHOF), which forecasts daily heating oil demand for individual customers who are enrolled in an automatic delivery...

This paper presents information on the Stochastic Energy Deployment System (SEDS) model. DOE and NREL are developing this new model, intended to address many of the shortcomings of the current suite of energy models. Once fully built, the salient qualities of SEDS will include full probabilistic...

In order to increase the welfare of society through the implementation of a building energy-performance standard, a method is required by which the least-cost means of obtaining the desired space conditioning of a building can be estimated. In other words, a life-cycle cost model must be...

Conservation supply curves are a common tool in economic analysis. As such, they provide an important opportunity to include a non-linear representation of technology and technological change in economy-wide models. Because supply curves are closely related to production isoquants, we explore...

Battelle, Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) is conducting a program to help assess impacts of energy-related developments through the year 2025 in six northwestern states--Washington, Oregon, Idaho, Montana, Wyoming and Alaska. ELSA (Electric Power Supply Analysis Model), one component of this...

This report sunnnarizes the research by an Energy Modeling Forum working group on the evolution of the North American natural gas markets between now and 2010. The group's findings are based partly on the results of a set of economic models of the natural gas industry that were run for four...

This report forms part of a project entitled 'World Biofuels Study'. The objective is to study world biofuel markets and to examine the possible contribution that biofuel imports could make to help meet the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) of the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 (EISA)....

Heightened natural gas prices have emerged as a key energy-policy challenge for at least the early part of the 21st century. With the recent run-up in gas prices and the expected continuation of volatile and high prices in the near future, a growing number of voices are calling for increased...

The eleventh Energy Modeling Forum (EMF) working group met four times over the 1989--1990 period to compare alternative perspectives on international oil supplies and demands through 2010 and to discuss how alternative supply and demand trends influence the world`s dependence upon Middle Eastern...

This report summarizes die research by an Energy Modeling Forum working group on the evolution of the North American natural gas markets between now and 2010. The group's findings are based partly on the results of a set of economic models of the natural gas industry that were run for four...