We study the revision of survey expectations in response to macroeconomic shocks, which we identify in vector autoregressive models with sign restrictions. We find that survey respondents distinguish between movements along the Phillips curve and shifts of the Phillips curve, depending on the...

We study the effects of macroeconomic shocks on several measures of economic inequality obtained from U.S. survey data. To identify aggregate supply, aggregate demand, and monetary policy shocks, we estimate structural vector autoregressions and impose sign and zero restrictions on impulse...

DSGE models with generalized shock processes have been a major area of research in recent years. In this paper, I show that the structural parameters governing DSGE models are not identified when the driving process behind the model follows an unrestricted VAR. This finding implies that...

This study analyzes the impact of supply and demand shocks on income and price inequality in the economy using data from Korea. First, supply and demand shocks are identified from output and price data in Korea using the methods found in Blanchard and Quah (1989) and Bashar (2011). In addition,...

The Global Vector Autoregressive (GVAR) approach has proven to be a very useful approach to analyze interactions in the global macroeconomy and other data networks where both the cross-section and the time dimensions are large. This paper surveys the latest developments in the GVAR modeling,...

This paper presents empirical evidence of the role of financial conditions in China's business cycle. We estimate a Bayesian-VAR for the Chinese economy, incorporating a financial conditions index for China that captures movements across a range of financial variables, including interest rates...

We present evidence that global vectorautoregressive (GVAR) models produce significantly more accurate recession forecasts than country-specific time-series models in a Bayesian framework. This result holds for most countries and forecast horizons as well as for several country groups.

This paper investigates the global macroeconomic consequences of country-specific oil-supply shocks. Our contribution is both theoretical and empirical. On the theoretical side, we develop a model for the global oil market and integrate this within a compact quarterly model of the global economy...

This paper provides new indices of global macroeconomic uncertainty and investigates the cross-country transmission of uncertainty using a global vector autoregressive (GVAR) model. The indices measure the dispersion of forecasts that results from parameter uncertainty in the GVAR. Relying on...