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Forecasting House Prices in the United States with Multiple Structural Breaks
Barari, Mahua; Sarkar, Nityananda; Kundu, Srikanta; … - In: International Econometric Review (IER) 6 (2014) 1, pp. 1-23
) endogenously determine the break points and iii) conduct house price forecasting exercises to see how models with structural breaks … compared the forecasting performance of the model with structural breaks to four competing models – namely, Random Acceleration …. Hence, forecasting models that assume constant coefficients such as ARMA may not accurately capture house price dynamics. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012610949
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New linear model for optimal cluster size in cluster sampling
Shukla, Alok Kumar; Yadav, Subhash Kumar - In: Statistics in Transition New Series 21 (2020) 2, pp. 189-200
In this paper, a nonlinear model is proposed for improving the relationship between the size of a cluster and the variance within the cluster. This model describes the most appropriate functional relation between the within-cluster variance and the cluster size. Through this model, we can obtain...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012600234
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Bayesian averaging vs. dynamic factor models for forecasting economic aggregates with tendency survey data
Bialowolski, Piotr; Kuszewski, Tomasz; Witkowski, Bartosz - In: Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal 9 (2015) 2015-31, pp. 1-37
The article compares forecast quality from two atheoretical models. Neither method assumed a priori causality and forecasts were generated without additional assumptions about regressors. Tendency survey data was used within the Bayesian averaging of classical estimates (BACE) framework and...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011371996
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Wohnimmobilien in Großstädten: Kaufpreise steigen auch 2014 schneller als Mieten
Kholodilin, Konstantin A.; Siliverstovs, Boriss - In: DIW Wochenbericht 80 (2013) 49, pp. 23-31
Die Kaufpreise für Eigentumswohnungen sind seit Beginn des Jahres 2010 um durchschnittlich sechs Prozent gegenüber dem jeweiligen Vorjahresquartal gestiegen. Die Wachstumsraten der Mietpreise haben mit vier Prozent deutlich weniger zugenommen, liegen aber ebenfalls oberhalb der allgemeinen...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010327607
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Forecast Evaluation of Explanatory Models of Financial Variability
Sucarrat, Genaro - In: Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal 3 (2009) 2009-8, pp. 1-33
A practice that has become widespread and widely endorsed is that of evaluating forecasts of financial variability obtained from discrete time models by comparing them with high-frequency ex post estimates (e.g. realised volatility) based on continuous time theory. In explanatory financial...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010332964
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Application of integrated data mining techniques in stock market forecasting
Huang, Chin-yin; Lin, Philip K. P. - In: Cogent Economics & Finance 2 (2014) 1, pp. 2-17
market. Therefore, the current research focuses in the stock forecasting area is to improve the accuracy of stock trading … stock market forecasting. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011559120
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Stock return predictability and market integration: The role of global and local information
McMillan, David G. - In: Cogent Economics & Finance 4 (2016) 1, pp. 1-18
is related to dividend growth. A single dominant realised returns factor is also noted. A forecasting exercise comparing …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011559218
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Many inspections are manipulable
Shmaya, Eran - In: Theoretical Economics 3 (2008) 3, pp. 367-382
A self-proclaimed expert uses past observations of a stochastic process to make probabilistic predictions about the process. An inspector applies a test function to the infinite sequence of predictions provided by the expert and the observed realization of the process in order to check the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011599407
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On the relationship between individual and group decisions
Sobel, Joel - In: Theoretical Economics 9 (2014) 1, pp. 163-185
Each member of a group receives a signal about the unknown state of the world and decides upon a utility-maximizing recommendation on the basis of that signal. The individuals have identical preferences. The group makes a decision that maximizes the common utility function assuming perfect...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011599508
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Money Predicted Spain as Football World Champion
Gerhards, Jürgen; Wagner, Gert G. - In: Weekly Report 6 (2010) 25, pp. 193-198
Historically, football experts' predictions were the only method of predicting the outcomes of championships. Former players, coaches, and nearly all fans have tried their hand at it. And most of these predictions were wrong, since subjective desires and prevailing public opinions always played...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011601314