Carton, Benjamin; Hu, Nan; Mongardini, Joannes; Moriya, Kei - 2020
An essential element of the work of the Fund is to monitor and forecast international trade. This paper uses SWIFT … (PMI), to improve the short-term forecast of international trade. A horse race between linear regressions and machine …-learning algorithms for the world and 40 large economies shows that forecasts based on linear regressions often outperform those based on …
