In export operation forecasting exercises the effect of stochastic inputvariables such as exchange rates and commodity prices are often ignoredwith the convention being to account for their uncertainty in discount rates. Inthe case where exchange rates are highly volatile, such as in the...

The dissertation consists of three essays. Chapter II examines the asymmetriceffects of monetary policy on stock prices by using an unobserved components modelwith Markov-switching. My results show that monetary policy has negative effects onstock prices, which is consistent with the most recent...

The theory of optimum currency areas states that the more two countries trade with each other, the better candidates they are for a currency union. In terms of the endogeneity argument, convergence follows from joining a currency union and the integration process itself turns the countries into...

The five chapters of this dissertation deal with the topic of trade under different kinds of uncertainty. In the first chapter, the impact of exchange rate uncertainty on exports of European countries is investigated with a special focus on short-term effects, sectoral differences and the impact...