Five years ago, we found three distinct periods characterized by sustainable quasi-linear trends in the difference between the headline consumer price index (CPI) and the core CPI in the USA. Then we revealed similar behavior in the differences between the CPI and indices of various consumer...

Consumer confidence indices (CCIs) are a closely monitored barometer of countries' economic health, and an informative forecasting tool. Using European and US data, we provide a case study of the two recent stock market meltdowns (the post-dotcom bubble correction of 2000-2002 and the 2007-2009...

Investor's psychological and emotional factors lead to irrationality in financial decision making and anomalies in prices. Investor sentiment and psychology help to elucidate phenomena in financial markets that cannot be explained by traditional theory. The aim of this study is two-fold: it...

The focus of this paper is on nowcasting and forecasting quarterly private consumption. The selection of real-time, monthly indicators focuses on standard (“hard”/“soft” indicators) and less-standard variables. Among the latter group we analyze: i) proxy indicators of economic and policy...

This article shows that real, total consumption growth deviations from normal stock market wealth effects lead economic growth. Consumers' expenditures reflect their information about employment opportunities and future real wage growth, as well as information about the volatility of future...

The COVID-19 pandemic has highlighted the need for timely information on the evolving economic impacts of such a crisis. During these periods, there is an increased need to understand the current state of the economy in order to guide the effective implementation of policy. This is made...

While most studies examine the impact of business confidence on market performance, we instead focus on the consumer because consumer spending habits are a natural extension of trading activity on the equity market. This particular study examines investor sentiment as measured by the Consumer...