We take an agnostic view of the Phillips curve debate, and carry out an empirical investigation of the relative and absolute efficacy of Calvo sticky price (SP), sticky information (SI), and sticky price with indexation models (SPI), with emphasis on their ability to mimic inflationary dynamics....

This paper develops tests for comparing the accuracy of predictive densities derived from (possibly misspecified) diffusion models. In particular, we first outline a simple simulation-based framework for constructing predictive densities for one-factor and stochastic volatility models. Then, we...

This paper derives the limiting distributions of alternative jackknife IV (JIV) estimators and gives formulae for accompanying consistent standard errors in the presence of heteroskedasticity and many instruments. The asymptotic framework includes the many instrument sequence of Bekker (1994)...

The topic of volatility measurement and estimation is central to financial and more generally time series econometrics. In this paper, we begin by surveying models of volatility, both discrete and continuous, and then we summarize some selected empirical findings from the literature. In...

Various methods are available to extract the “business cycle component” of a given time series variable. These methods may be derived as solutions to frequency extraction or signal extraction problems and differ in both their handling of trends and noise and their assumptions about the ideal...

We conduct a systematic comparison of confidence intervals around estimated probabilities of default (PD), using several analytical approaches from large-sample theory and bootstrapped small-sample confidence intervals. We do so for two different PD estimation methods

We investigate whether commonly used value-added estimation strategies can produce accurate estimates of teacher effects. We estimate teacher effects in simulated student achievement data sets that mimic plausible types of student grouping and teacher assignment scenarios. No one method...

This paper shows why regressing the realised rates of depreciation within the exchange rate band on a given information set and conditional on (ex-post) actual no-realignment (à la drift adjustment) still encounters a Peso Problem. Such a procedure generally gives inconsistent estimates. The...

The application of continuous time Weibull models on discrete unemployment duration data may produce bias in the estimated shape of the hazard rate. The bias can be substantial even for weekly duration data, and it is seriously aggravated if the Weibull model is erroneously mixed with a Gamma...

We present new Monte Carlo evidence regarding the feasibility of separating causality from selection within non-experimental interval-censored duration data, by means of the nonparametric maximum likelihood estimator (NPMLE). Key findings are: i) the NPMLE is extremely reliable, and it...