This paper provides the first systematic study of the temporal and cross-sectional variation in the forward premium in very short-term rates. Using a unique and comprehensive data set of European repurchase agreements (repo), we find that the forward premium varies significantly with the (net)...

In the intertemporal asset pricing model, investments in spot foreign currencies involve time-varying risk proportional to the conditional covariance of the value of the position with the intertemporal marginal rate of substitution of domestic currency. We detect such risk premia in deviations...

The failure of uncovered interest parity can be ascribed to the existence of a risk premium. The size of this risk premium may shrink to zero over sufficiently small intervals of time. In contrast, because no interest is paid on intradaily positions and interest is instead paid discretely at the...

Is systematic monetary policy a driver of the forward premium puzzle, i.e. the tendency of high interest-rate currencies to appreciate, thus strongly violating Uncovered Interest Parity (UIP)? We address this question by studying a battery of monetary policy rules in a small open economy that is...

The forward premium is a notoriously poor predictor of exchange rate movements. This failure must reflect deviations from risk neutrality and/or rational expectations. In addition, a mechanism is needed that generates the appropriate correlation between the forward premium and shocks arising...

Different approaches to quantifying the degree of capital mobility for a cross-section of currencies -- particularly saving-investment correlations and tests of real interest parity - have appeared to show a surprisingly low degree of financial market integration. We use a new data set, forward...