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Nach der jüngsten Finanz- und Wirtschaftskrise kamen verstärkt Forderungen auf, die Geldpolitik solle zur frühzeitigen Erkennung von Finanzmarktungleichgewichten verstärkt auf monetäre Variablen ihr Augenmerk richten. Der vorliegende Beitrag zeigt, dass diese Überlegung wohl begründet...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010985173
last two years, can well be explained. Alongside the more traditional macroeconomic determinants like core inflation …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010985196
several years until cartel victims obtain damages. Interest and inflation are thus two key drivers of adequate compensation … legal systems treat interest and inflation as part of competition law actions for damages, and, using real-world data from …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010985620
This paper employ monthly data to examine the empirical relationship between oil price shocks and domestic inflation … consumer prices. However, oil price shocks cause inflation to increase while oil price uncertainty does not cause an increase … in inflation. Furthermore, inflation itself causes inflation uncertainty. The findings of this study encourage the …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011201282
This paper amends the New Keynesian Phillips curve model to include inflation volatility and tests the determinants of … such volatility for India. It provides results on the determinants of inflation volatility and expected inflation … volatility for OLS and ARDL (1,1) models and for change in inflation volatility and change in expected inflation volatility using …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011201603
Central to the conduct of monetary policy are inflation forecasts. Inflation forecast are not unique. Central banks and … professional organizations generate inflation forecasts while households are surveyed about their inflation outlook. This paper … estimates inflation forecast disagreement for nine economies over the 1999-2009 period, five of which target inflation. I find …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011201607
This paper introduces the concept of a Forecast Combination Equilibrium to model boundedly rational agents who combine a menu of different forecasts using insights from the forecasting literature to mimic the behavior of actual forecasters. The equilibrium concept is consistent with rational...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011201904
The strong economic ties between the GCC economies and the U.S. are manifested in three ways: currency peg, coupling of monetary policy, and the adoption of the U.S. dollar as the trading currency for oil. This paper examines how these dynamics result in a misalignment of the U.S. monetary...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011202987
This paper studies the joint dynamics of U.S. inflation and the average inflation predictions of the Survey of … consists of the unobserved components (UC) model of Stock and Watson (2007, "Why has US inflation become harder to forecast … Journal of Economics 117, 1295-1328). We introduce timevarying inflation gap persistence into the Stock and Watson (SW …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011203192
-data likelihood. Through an empirical example using US and UK inflation, we show that the version based on the complete …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011203193