The purpose of this report is to review the evidence on the profitability of technical analysis. The empirical literature is categorized into two groups, quot;earlyquot; and quot;modernquot; studies, according to the characteristics of testing procedures. Early studies indicated that technical...

Analysis of a unique data set of 1,400 U.S. crop producers using a mixture-modeling framework shows that the likelihood of Marketing Advisory Services (MAS) use is, among others, driven by the perceived performance of MAS in terms of regarding return and risk reduction, the match between the MAS...

This study uses a unique data set from the CFTC to investigate the impact of trading by large hedge funds and CTAs in 13 futures markets. Regression results show there is a small but positive relationship between the trading volume of large hedge funds and CTAs and market volatility. However, a...

The informational value of USDA corn and soybean production forecasts is investigated for the period 1971-1992. Three tests of informational content are considered: i) a relative forecast accuracy test, ii) a price reaction test, and iii) a willingness-to-pay test. Overall, the results suggest...

The focus of this study is the habitual speculator in commodity futures markets. The speculator's activity broadens a market, creates essential liquidity, and performs an irreplaceable pricing function. Working knowledge of the profiles and motivations of habitual speculators is essential to...

The D4 RIN is the tradable compliance certificate for the biomass-based diesel mandate in the Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS). Understanding the price dynamics of the D4 RIN is important for understanding the RFS because its price sets a ceiling on the ethanol RIN (D6) and because some observers...

Annual rebalancing of the S&P GSCI index provides a novel and strong identification to estimate the shape of supply curves for commodity futures contracts. Using the 24 commodities included in the S&P GSCI for 2004–2017, we show that cumulative abnormal returns (CARs) reach a peak of 59 basis...

Several studies employ mapping algorithms to infer index positions in WTI crude oil futures from positions in agricultural futures and report an economically large and statistically significant impact of index positions on crude oil futures prices. In this article, we provide direct evidence...

During most of 2005-10, the price of expiring U.S. corn, soybeans, and wheat futures contracts settled much higher than corresponding delivery market cash prices. Because futures contracts at expiration are commonly thought to be equivalent to cash grain, this commodity price non-convergence...