Global growth has slowed down recently. While the world economy should gradually regain pace over the coming quarters, overall growth momentum is expected to remain subdued. The recent drop in oil prices has not improved the outlook as it to a substantial degree signals weaker demand;...

We study the properties of the IMF-WEO estimates of real-time output gaps for countries in the euro area as well as the determinants of their revisions over 1994-2017. The analysis shows that staff typically saw economies as operating below their potential. In real time, output gaps tend to have...

In the last few decades, real GDP growth and investment in advanced countries have declined in tandem. This slowdown was not the result of weak demand (there has been no shift along the Okun curve), but of a decline in potential output growth (which has shifted the Okun curve to the left). We...