In this paper we use bootstrap approach to test the null hypothesis thatall forecasters in the U.S. Surveys of Professional Forecasters (SPF) have equalability. Our bootstrap procedure captures any potential cross-sectional andserial correlation in the forecast errors while preserving the...

This paper considers bootstrap inference in model averaging for predictive regressions. We firstshow that a naïve bootstrap approach, which consists of stacking all residuals at time t into a vector, and then resampling these cross-sectional vectors of residuals over time is invalid in the...

Judging the conformity of binary events in macroeconomics and finance has often been done with indices that measure synchronization. In recent years, the use of Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve has become popular for this task. This paper shows that the ROC and synchronization...

This paper examines the seasonality in U.S. Social Security disability applications. We demonstrate that the monthly disability applications feature a double-peak seasonal pattern which lags a similar seasonal pattern in unemployment rate and unemployment insurance initial claims by one to two...

We examine the role of education and race in explaining disparities in health-adjusted life expectancy (HALE) for Americans in the age group 45-64. We compute severity-weighted prevalence of diseases with comorbidity adjustments based on the Global Burden of Disease (2015), and map the...

In this paper, a control function approach is developed to deal with endogeneity issue in estimating panel data models with ordered response. This methodology is characterized by a two-step procedure, requiring only standard regression to be implemented in each step. To demonstrate the...

We examine forecast accuracy and efficiency of the Social Security Administration’s projections for cost rate, trust fund balance, trust fund ratio made during 1980-2020 with horizons up to 95 years. We find that the reported deterioration in the accuracy of the forecasts during 2010’s has...

Research has shown that birthweight has a lasting impact on later-life outcomes such as educational attainment and earnings. This paper examines the role of health at birth in determining academic achievement in childhood, which may provide the link between birthweight and adult outcomes. Using...

In this paper, we estimate the effect of psychiatric disorders on labor market outcomes using a structural equation model with a latent index for mental illness, an approach that acknowledges the continuous nature of psychiatric disability. We also address the potential endogeneity of mental...