Interest rate expectations are essential for exchange rate determination. Using a unique Survey data set on interest rate forecasts from 1986 to 1995 for G7 countries, we find that interest rate shocks were significantly more persistent in sample than expected by the market. This is consistent...

High-interest-rate currencies tend to appreciate in the future relative to low-interest-rate currencies instead of depreciating as uncovered-interest-parity (UIP) predicts. I construct a model of exchange-rate determination in which ambiguity-averse agents face a dynamic filtering problem...

Dollar carry trade risk premiums – unlike dollar-neutral or foreign exchange carry risk premiums – are positively correlated with firm-level dispersions in investment, profitability, and book-to-market in addition to the Treasury-bill rate, long term bond yield, term spread, and default...