This paper conducts an empirical analysis of the heterogeneity of recessions in monthly U.S. coincident and leading indicator variables. Univariate Markovswitching models indicate that it is appropriate to allow for two distinct recession regimes, corresponding with 'mild' and 'severe'...

This paper considers the nature and the distribution of trade and FDI effects of a potential enlargement of the European Monetary Union (EMU) to the 10 countries that obtained EU membership in 2004. One-way and two-way error component gravity models are estimated using a data set of unbalanced...

This paper addresses heterogeneity in determinants of economic growth in a data-driven way. Instead of defining groups of countries with different growth characteristics a priori, based on, for example, geographical location, we use a finite mixture panel model and endogenous clustering to...

Stylized facts show that the average growth rates of US per capitaconsumption and income differ in recession and expansion periods.Since a linear combination of such series does not have to be a constant meanprocess, standard cointegration analysis between the variables, toexamine the permanent...

We propose a novel Bayesian test under a (noninformative) Jeffreys'priorspecification. We check whether the fixed scalar value of the so-calledBayesian Score Statistic (BSS) under the null hypothesis is aplausiblerealization from its known and standardized distribution under thealternative....

In this paper we study what professional forecasters actually explain. We use spectral analysis and state space modeling to decompose economic time series into a trend, a business-cycle, and an irregular component. To examine which components are captured by professional forecasters we regress...