The present paper sheds further light on a well-known (alleged) violation of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure (EHT) - the frequent finding of unit roots in interest rate spreads. We show that the EHT implies (i) that the nonstationarity stems from the holding premium, which is...

The present study addresses the economic interpretation of stock market volatility. We argue that its character is inherently ambivalent, being considered as an indicator of either information flow or uncertainty.We discriminate between these views by measuring the fraction of price changes that...

Die Bundesregierung verfolgt in der Wachstumsinitiative das Ziel, die Einwanderung in den Arbeitsmarkt zu stärken. In den ersten drei Jahren sollen 30 %, 20 % und 10 % des Bruttoeinkommens neu zugezogener Fachkräfte steuerfrei gestellt werden. Der Adressatenkreis ist noch nicht exakt...

This paper develops a large-scale algorithm‑based application to improve the match quality in the labor market. We use comprehensive administrative data on employment biographies in Germany to predict job match quality in terms of job stability and wages. The models are estimated with both...

Die Zahl der Beschäftigten in der Zeitarbeitsbranche stieg in Deutschland lange Zeit an. Seit Ende 2017 hat sich dies verändert, die Zahl der Beschäftigten in der Zeitarbeit sinkt. Dies hängt mit der Neufassung des Arbeitnehmerüberlassungsgesetzes zusammen, aber auch mit der schwachen...

We state that long-run restrictions that identify structural shocks in VAR models with unit roots lose their original interpretation if the fractional integration order of the affected variable is below one. For such fractionally integrated models we consider a medium-run approach that employs...

This paper deals with simultaneous interactions between the determinants of the US yield curve. For this purpose, we derive a multivariate unobserved components model based on the expectation hypothesis. The influencing factors of the term structure that arise from the structural model are a...

Between 1979 and 2009, the German labour market moved along a Beveridge curve with changing slope that used to shift outwards but shifted inwards after severe labour market reforms had come into force. We analyse these dynamics and focus on the macroeconomic outcome of the reforms. For that...