The literature on belief-driven business cycles treats news and noise as distinct representations of agents' beliefs. We prove they are empirically the same. Our result lets us isolate the importance of purely belief-driven fluctuations. Using three prominent estimated models, we show that...

Under rather general conditions, observed covariances place a useful lower bound on the variance of the misspecification or noise III models based on expectations. Such models are widely used for securities prices, exchange rates, consumption, and output. For a correctly specified model, the...

This note extends the analysis in Stark and Croushore (2001) with an emphasis on the importance of data vintage for evaluating survey forecasts and modeling expectations. For both of these types of empirical exercises, results suggest that the choice of latest available or real-time data is...