Foster, Dean P.; Hart, Sergiu - In: Theoretical economics : TE ; an open access journal in … 18 (2023) 4, pp. 1441-1474
To identify expertise, forecasters should not be tested by their calibration score, which can always be made arbitrarily small, but rather by their Brier score. The Brier score is the sum of the calibration score and the refinement score; the latter measures how good the sorting into bins with...