Default probabilities (PDs) and correlations play a crucial role in the New Basel Capital Accord. In commercial credit risk models they are an important constituent. Yet, modeling and estimation of PDs and correlations is still under active discussion. We show how the Basel II one factor model...

Default probabilities (PDs) and correlations play a crucial role in the New Basel Capital Accord. In commercial credit risk models they are an important constituent. Yet, modeling and estimation of PDs and correlations is still under active discussion. We show how the Basel II one factor model...

We model multiyear loss distributions based on credit scores and macroeconomic risk drivers. In a two-step approach, we first model future default probabilities as functions of these risk factors and, second, model processes for the risk factors themselves. As an essential extension to one-year...

The present paper shows how the parameters of three popular portfolio credit risk models can be empiricallyestimated by banks using a Maximum Likelihood framework. We apply the method to a database of Germanfirms provided by Deutsche Bundesbank and analyze the inclusion of macroeconomic and...

In addition to “classical” approaches, such as the Gaussian CreditMetrics or Basel II model, recentlythe use of other copulas has been proposed in the area of credit risk for modeling loss distributions,particularly T copulas which lead to fatter tails ceteris paribus. As an amendment to...

Among the most crucial input parameters for credit portfolio risk models are the co-movements ofdefault risks. Due to limited empirical evidence about the magnitude of correlations the New BaselCapital Accord sets standard requirements for calculating regulatory capital requirements, e.g. in...

One of the greatest challenges in modeling credit portfolio risk is the issue of correlations between borrowers.Up to now no consistent methodology for identifying correlations exists. In general two approachesare employed: “direct” and “indirect” modeling. While the former specify...

In jüngerer Zeit sind im professionellen Portfoliomanagement zunehmend Faktorenmodelle in den Vordergrund bei der Investment-Analyse gerückt und haben klassische Modelle wie das CAPM mehr und mehr verdrängt. Charakte-ristisch für diese Modelle ist, daß lediglich ein...

Zusammenfassung. In jüngerer Zeit werden in zunehmendem Maße Ansätze der Arbitrage Pricing Theory im praktischen Portfoliomanagement eingesetzt. Eine wichtige Klasse stellen die „fundamentalen Faktoren-Modelle“ dar, bei denen unternehmensspezifische Variablen, wie z.B....

Das wohl bekannteste finanzierungstheoretische Gleichgewichtsmodell, das „Capital-Asset-Pricing-Model” (CAPM) wurde von Sharpe (1964), Lintner (1965) und Mossin (1966) ent-wickelt. Das CAPM, das eine lineare Beziehung zwischen der erwarteten Rendite und dem Risiko eines Wertpapiers...