Goodwin introduces his article with an incident in Italy when seven people (engineers, scientists, and a civil servant) were jailed following an earthquake in the city of L?Aquila in which 309 people died. At the trial it was alleged that they had failed in their duty by not properly assessing...

The most recent three issues of Foresight featured Steve Morlidge’s encyclopedic rendition of “Guiding Principles” for an organization’s forecasting process. The guiding principles were divided into five classifications: Foundation Principles, Design Principles, Process Principles,...

See title Copyright International Institute of Forecasters, 2012

The successful introduction of new durable products plays an important part in helping companies to stay ahead of their competitors. Decisions relating to these products can be improved by the availability of reliable pre-launch forecasts of their adoption time series. However, producing such...

In this Hot New research column, Goodwin cites a recent blog of Uriel Haran and Don Moore of Ben-Gurion University, who Òpresent a simple method that aims to improve the accuracy of judgmental forecasts involving probability distributions.Ó The authors call their method SPIES: Subjective...

This study investigates whether experts’ group-based judgmental adjustments to econometric forecasts of tourism demand improve the accuracy of the forecasts and whether the adjusted forecasts are unbiased. The Delphi method was used to aggregate experts’ judgmental adjustments and a range of...

The complementary strengths that management judgment and statistical methods can bring to the forecasting process have been widely discussed. This paper reviews research on the effectiveness of methods that are designed to allow judgment and statistical methods to be integrated when short-term...

The paper reports a study of the impact on user satisfaction and forecast accuracy of user involvement in the design of a forecasting decision support system (FDSS). Two versions of an FDSS were tested via a laboratory study. Version 1, allowed the user control over all aspects of the system...

Empirical research suggests that quantitatively derived forecasts are very frequently judgementally adjusted. Nevertheless, little work has been conducted to evaluate the performance of these judgemental adjustments in a practical demand/sales context. In addition, the relevant analysis does not...