Im Rahmen eines Tests der spekulativen Effizienz auf den Devisenmärkten Polens, der Tschechischen Repubik, Ungarns und der Slowakei kann für den Beobachtungszeitraum von 1999 bis Mitte 2002 keine Kointegrationsbeziehung zwischen Termin- und Kassakursen gegenüber dem Euro nachgewiesen werden....

A test of speculative efficiency on the foreign exchange markets of Poland, the Czech Republic, Hungary and the Slovak republic was unable to identify a cointegration relationship between forward and spot rates against the euro for the period between 1999 and mid-2002. Econometric studies...

In this paper we provide evidence for Evans and Lyons' (2005b) model of an information aggregation process in FX markets using a German bank's end-user order flow from 2002 to 2003. Though customer order flow is unambiguously the vehicle incorporating non-public information into exchange rates...

In this paper, we use the Wall Street Journal poll of FX forecasts to analyze how the group of forecasters form their expectations. One focus is whether forecasters build rational expectations. Furthermore, we analyze whether the group of forecasters can be regarded as homogeneous or...

Though unambiguously outperforming all other financial markets in terms of liquidity, foreign exchange trading is still performed in opaque and decentralized markets. In particular, the two-tier market structure consisting of a customer segment and an interdealer segment to which only market...

This agent-based financial market model is a generalization of the model of Westerhoff (The Use of Agent-Based Financial Market Models to Test the Effectiveness of Regulatory Policies) by traders who are allowed to have different investment horizons as introduced by Demary (Who Does a Currency...

The aim of this paper is to detect periods in which two currencies can be classified as being the'same' asset. Two currencies can be treated as the same asset if their exchange rates vis-à-vis the same base currency are cointegrated with a cointegration vector that is consistent with the...

This paper applies nonlinear econometric models to empirically investigate the effectiveness of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) exchange rate policy. First, results from a STARTZ model are provided revealing nonlinear mean reversion of the Australian dollar exchange rate in the sense that...