Our proposed local vector autoregressive (LVAR) model has time-varying parameters that allow it to be safely used in both stationary and non-stationary situations. The estimation is conducted over an interval of local homogeneity where the parameters are approximately constant. The local...

We propose an Adaptive Dynamic Nelson-Siegel (ADNS) model to adaptively forecast the yield curve. The model has a simple yet flexible structure and can be safely applied to both stationary and nonstationary situations with different sources of change. For the 3- to 12-months ahead out-of-sample...

在利用中国å„ç§å®è§‚和金èžæ•°æ®çš„实è¯ç ”究和政策分æžä¸­ï¼Œå‘é‡è‡ªå›žå½’模型（Vector Autoregression,...

We estimate the long-term impact of social security and social protection spending in a set of twelve EU countries. We estimate country-specific VARs relating GDP, unemployment, savings, and social spending. We find that social spending has a negative effect in most countries while the effects...

This paper examines the long-term relationship between macro economic fundamentals and the weighted-average land price indicators, which are supposed to be more appropriate than the official land price indicators when analyzing their impacts on the macro economy. In many cases, we find the...

We estimate the output gap that is consistent with a fully specified DSGE model. Given the structural parameters estimated using Bayesian methods, we estimate the output gap that is defined as a deviation of output from its flexible-price equilibrium. Our output gap illustrates the U.S. business...

Fresh-cut and ready to eat products are gaining market shares over fruits and vegetables. Dining habits and cooking time are changing over time and life styles are modifying the food preparation and the time used for eating. In the meanwhile, prices could be playing an important role in the...

This paper investigates the macroeconomic sources of time-varying risk premia in Turkish REIT industry within the arbitrage pricing theory framework. Turkish REIT industry differs substantially from the global REIT market as Turkish REITs do not have to pay out dividends, yet enjoy the exemption...

Sanayileşme iktisadi kalkınmanın gerçekleştirilmesi açısından son derece önemlidir. Sanayi üretimindeki gelişmeler büyüme ve ekonomik kalkınmanın dinamiğini oluşturmaktadır. Bu çalışmanın amacı, sanayi üretimini etkileyen iktisadi değişkenleri belirlemek, sanayi...

Bu çalışma, vektör öz gecikmeli (vector autoregression-VAR) modeller kullanarak Türkiye’de döviz kuru ve ithalat fiyatlarının çekirdek tüketici fiyatları (işlenmemiş gıda ve alkollü içecekler-tütün hariç TÜFE) üzerindeki etkisini (geçişkenlik etkisi) incelemektedir....