This paper re-assesses the panel (unit root test) evidence for PPP on four monthly data sets. We discuss and illustrate that commonly-used first generation panel unit root tests are inappropriate for PPP analysis since they are constructed for cross-sectionally uncorrelated panels. Given that...

This paper studies a Cournot duopoly in international trade so that the firms are exposed to exchange rate risk. A hedging opportunity is introduced by a forward market where the foreign currency can be traded on. We investigate two settings: First we assume that hedging and output decisions are...

This paper sets forth the foundations for a transactional approach for the performance of arbitrage in foreign exchange markets. Firstly, we review both the standard model of financial arbitrage and the so-called covered-interest arbitrage environment, and we also lay bare striking shortcomings...

This paper builds upon the model of Kaminsky and Reinhart (1999) and extends it to triplecrises. It applies a new visualisation approach combining elements of an event study analysis and a fan chart technique. This approach illustrates the deviation of fundamentals in the runup to...

This paper aims to estimate the equilibrium real exchange rate for the United States economy. The equilibrium exchange rate is defined as the level of exchange that guarantees that the net foreign asset position is stable over time. An econometric model is estimated using multivariate and...

This paper aims to estimate the equilibrium real exchange rate for the Brazilian economy. The equilibrium exchange rate is defined as the level of exchange that guarantees that the net foreign asset position is stable over time. An econometric model is estimated using cointegration techniques....

This paper aims to evaluate what are the main long run determinants of Chinese real exchange rate that have depreciated substantially compared to a basket of currencies. The Chinese government started a process of accumulating foreign reserve in growing speed measured in absolute or relative...

This paper develops a new Early Warning System (EWS) model for predicting financial crises, based on a multinomial logit model. It is shown that EWS approaches based on binomial discrete-dependent-variable models can be subject to what we call a post-crisis bias. This bias arises when no...

We develop an N-country model with stock markets in which closed-form solutions for the real exchange rate is derived. Our model allows for a given number of risky-assets, which form an incomplete market. Risky asset prices and allocations of risky assets among countries are determined...

This paper focuses on the role of real exchange rate volatility as a driver of portfolio home bias, and in particular as an explanation for differences in home bias across financial assets. We present a Markowitz-type portfolio selection model in which real exchange rate volatility induces a...