I show that a congruent, parsimonious, encompassing model discovered using David Hendry's econometric modelling approach and Autometrics can overcome the many inadequacies of the typical static models of US Treasury returns regressed on macroeconomic announcements. The typical specification...

How does investors' information about a country's fundamentals, and the fact that this information may be asymmetrically held, affect a country's financing cost? Motivated by this question, and by the observation that sovereign bonds are usually auctioned in large lots to a large number of...

Since its debut in January 2009 as the first successful cryptocurrency, Bitcoin has been associated with both extreme volatility and illicit activities (i.e. the black market website Silk Road) linked to terrorism-financing, money-laundering, illegal drugs and human trafficking. But this time is...

During and after the Great Recession of 2008-09, conventional monetary policy in the United States and many other advanced economies was constrained by the effective lower bound (ELB) on nominal interest rates. Several central banks implemented large-scale asset purchase (LSAP) programs, more...

We build a general equilibrium model to analyze how the ability of banks to create money can affect asset prices and financial stability. In the model, demand for liquidity takes the form of demand for money to make payments. We show that banks can provide elastic aggregate liquidity by creating...

Using the Johansen cointegration technique, we find empirical evidence of long run co-movements between five national stock market indexes and measures of aggregate real activity including the real oil price, real consumption, real money, and real output. Real returns on these indexes are...

Over three decades, contemporaneous crises have collectively cost the world’s economies $30 trillion. The advent of Internet has transfigured commerce that resulted in exponential surges in online sales, this fostered money’s evolution into cryptocurrency. The mysterious Satoshi Nakamoto...

We document that the convenience yield of U.S. Treasuries exhibits properties that are consistent with a hedging perspective of safe assets. The convenience yield tends to be low when the covariance of Treasury returns with the aggregate stock market returns is high. A decomposition of the...

This paper summarises where the global economy and capital markets stand at the end of 2022, which for many couldn’t have come soon enough, with a specific focus on the recent much discussed alteration to Japanese economy policy and specifically the Yield Curve Control (“YCC”) policies...

Recent empirical results about the US term structure are difficult to reconcile with the classical hypothesis of rational expectations even if time-varying but stationary term premia are allowed for. A hypothesis of rational learning about the conditional variance of the log pricing kernel is...