One of the stylized facts in financial and international economics is that of increasing predictability of variables such as exchange rates and stock returns at longer horizons. This fact is based upon applications of long horizon regressions, from which the typical findings are that the point...

This paper presents recent econometric models of individual mobility on the labor market. The general framework is given by the theory of point processes which are continuous time finite state space processes. The first part of the paper is devoted to specification problems and the inference of...

This paper develops a game-theoretic model of public policy in a developing country in order to explain a number of empirical regularities. It is shown that under certain circumstances, and increase in government revenue will be completly crowded out by incresed rent dissipation, leaving the...

In this paper we extend a job search-matching model with firm-specific investments in training developed by Mortensen (1998) to allow for different offer arrival rates in employment and unemployment. The model by Mortensen changes the original wage posting model (Burdett and Mortensen, 1998) in...

We address the problem of allocating indivisible goods and some amount of an infinitely divisible good among agents with equal rights on these resources. Our specific objective is to investigate the implications of the following requirement on allocation rules : when the preferences of some of...

This paper develops statistical and computational tools for modelling returns forecasts to be used by a risk neutral investor. Any forecast with the same sign as the conditional mean optimises the loss function derived from this agents' decision problem, so the class of optimal predictors is...

This paper describes a model designed to explain the observed developments of the business ownership rate as well as gross entry and exit rates. Besides explaining the past, the model is used for exploring the future using scenario analysis.

As of recent, EIM employs a revised labour-cost model. Amongst others, the revision was spurred by substantial changes materializing over the past three years in the field of social-security legislation. The objective of the ARKO (the abbreviation ARKO denotes the Dutch term ARbeidsKosten...

This note studies conditions under which sequences of capital per head generated by stochastic optimal accumulation models have law of large numbers and central limit properties. The regularity condition used on the productivity shock is somewhat different to that of previous studies. In...

This paper develops a three-sector dynamic general equilibrium model of Dutch Disease for an oil-exporting small open economy. Agricultural, manufacturing and nontradable goods are distinguished. Sectoral capital stock adjusts gradually. Spiral or monotone adjustment paths occur depending on the...