In the first quarter of 1995 Mexico found itself in the grip of an intense financial panic. Foreign investors fled Mexico despite very high interest rates on Mexican securities, an undervalued currency, and financial indicators that pointed to long-term solvency. The fundamental conditions of...

This paper investigates the nature of balance of payments crises in regimes with capital controls. It extends earlier work on capital controls by assuming that households manage their consumption and asset portfolios to maximize intertemporal utility. Our main result is that capital controls are...

With the rapid increase in LDC indebtedness in the recent decade, the issues of creditworthiness and country risk have gained new importance. This paper offers a theoretical and historical analysis of international capital markets in the presence of default risk. The theoretical model suggests...

Policy discussions in Japan have increasingly recognized the important role of land values and land-use patterns in Japanese macroeconomic adjustment. In Japan in recent years, land wealth constitutes more than half of financial wealth, a proportion that is much higher than in the United States...

This paper examines the patterns of defaults, renegotiations, and final settlements on foreign borrowing of several Latin American governments in the interwar period. One goal of the paper is to provide a detailed historical account of the borrowing and renegotiation experience of five Latin...

Recent macroeconomic models of developing countries have emphasized the possibility of contactionary devaluations, stressing that domestic aggregate demand is likely to be reduced by the devaluations while aggregate supply may respond only slowly to the change in relative prices brought about by...

This paper develops a cross-country statistical model of debt rescheduling, and the secondary market valuation of LDC debt, which links these variables to key structural characteristics of developing countries, such as the trade regime, the degree of income inequality, and the share of...

This paper presents a theoretical model to describe the effects of default risk on international lending to LDC sovereign borrowers. The threat of defaults in international lending is shown to give rise to many characteristics of the syndicated loan market: (1) quantity rationing of loans; (2)...

This paper addresses the question of external borrowing from the perspective of the borrowing country. The first section sketches a formal framework for optimal borrowing by a developing country, as seen from the planner's point of view. The next three sections use this framework for the...

The major theme of this paper is that the commercial banks have weathered the debt crisis, while many debtor countries remain in economic paralysis or worse. There is a growing consensus that much of the LDC debt will not be fully serviced in the future, and that consensus is reflected in at...