Studies of the predictive ability of the Federal Reserve's Beige Book, an anecdotal measure of regional economic conditions, for aggregate output and employment have proven inconclusive. This might be attributed, in part, to the irregular release schedule of the Beige Book. In this paper, we use...

We implement a spatial probit model to differentiate states with a lottery from those without a lottery. Our analysis extends the basic spatial probit model by allowing spatial dependence to vary across geographic regions. We also separate the spatial effects of neighbors versus non-neighbors....

We consider whether disaggregated data enhances the efficiency of aggregate employment forecasts. We find that incorporating spatial interaction into a disaggregated forecasting model lowers the out-of-sample mean-squared-error from a univariate aggregate model by 70 percent at a two-year horizon.

In this paper we study the determinants of banks’ decision to adopt a transactional website for their customers. Using a panel of commercial banks in the United States for the period 2003-2005, we show that although bank-specific characteristics are important determinants of banks’ adoption...

The influx of low-skilled and undocumented workers raises concerns about the impact on low-skilled U.S.-born workers and on the tax burden for all those born in the United States.