This paper outlines a baseline scenario for Mexico's economy for the period 2017-2019, based on the main internal and external assumptions with the highest probability to materialize. It also remarks the main risks that could deviate the economy from the baseline scenario

When the Mexican financial crisis occurred in December, 1994, there was little information with which to analyze the prospects, but there were many similarities between the adjustment that Mexico went through in connection with the debt crisis of 1982–83. The time paths of crucial variables in...

A method for anticipating quarterly estimates of GDP and its main components in advance of the official publication is presented in this study. Using high-frequency information, time series equations and regression analysis, the model predicts the quarterly GDP based on three different...

In many countries monetary policy decisions are based on the output gap. In particular, monetary easing is usually justified by citing slack in the economy. However, the use of subjective information can result in an inaccurate estimate of the output gap, and its partial interpretation can lead...

In 2011 we recommended the application of a structural fiscal rule to the case of Mexico, given the country's repetitive inability to implement a genuine fiscal reform. At that time, we said that due to the absence of a fiscal reform that increases tax revenues significantly, Mexico needs to...

Remittances to Mexico have increased more than six times in the past two decades. The boom in remittances can be explained mainly by U.S. economic performance as an attraction for Mexican workers, which implies more migration flows but also better-paying jobs. The immigrant’s income...

Monetary policymaking can be seen as an optimization exercise to be performed by central banks. In practice, central banks can be classified according to the monetary mandate assigned to them, mainly a single or a dual mandate. Among independent central banks, a majority are single-objective...

In this paper we evaluate Mexico’s potential scenario for 2018-2020 period, in which the economy will be immersed in the ups and downs of the business cycle, a traditional pattern determined by the political cycle every six years of change of government. In 2018 the economy will be under the...

Fed’s policymakers overestimated the negative output gap, leading them to prolong the monetary expansion beyond the necessary during the pandemic. The prolonged money expansion contributed to fuel inflation during the post-recession rebound. The policy mistake was the result of an inaccurate...