We explore the dynamics of real house prices by estimating serial correlation and mean reversion coefficients from a panel data set of 62 metro areas from 1979-1995. The serial correlation and reversion parameters are then shown to vary cross sectionally with city size, real income growth,...

Early tax reform proposals listed economic growth as a major goal, and some even gave explicit estimates of the expected increase in the long run output path that would follow from enactment. The 1986 Tax Act does not mention growth, much less give estimates of the expected increase, for good...

A commonsense and empirically supported approach to explaining metropolitan real house price changes is for the theory to describe an equilibrium price level to which the market is constantly adjusting. The determinants of real house price appreciation, then, can be divided into two groups, one...

The fair premia on FHA mortgage default insurance contracts are computed under alternative assumptions regarding the expected house price inflation rate and its variance and homeowner's default costs. The contracts considered vary by amortization schedule (15 and 30 year level-payment mortgages...

Possible benefits of tax reform include faster economic growth and greater equity across households. A part of economic growth is the channeling of saving into the most productive real investments. The ability of various tax regimes to channel saving efficiently and independently of the...

Model simulations are run to obtain a range of realistic estimates of the long-run revenue impact of a capital-gains tax-rate cut to a maximum of 15 percent. The basic vehicle for the simulations is a slightly modified version of the Galper-Lucice-Toder (GLT) general equilibrium model. The key...

In this paper we analyze the factors that affect the tenure choice of young adults, highlighting the impact of mortgage lender imposed borrowing constraints. The data set is a panel of youth age 20-33 for the years 1985-90. Our methods differ from most prior studies in many ways including...

Three major changes occurred during the 1980s in the market for home mortgage credit; the securitization of fixed-rate mortgages, the development of a national primary market for adjustable-rate mortgages, and the decimation of the saving and loan industry. These changes and their impacts on...

Real estate markets are periodically plagued by excess supply, rent concessions and few arms-length transactions. During such periods, valuation is problematic. The model presented here requires the forecasts of future vacancy rates, and equilibrium and actual rental rates. Vacancy rate...

This paper describes the real wealth accumulation of American youth and relates this behavior to variations in real constant-quality house prices in their localities of residence. We argue that increases in the real constant-quality house price have two offsetting effects on wealth. First, the...