Showing 11 - 20 of 54,793
. Preliminary evidence that mixed frequency based forecasting models yield improvements over standard fixed frequency models is …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009766691
In recent years, an impressive body or research on predictive accuracy testing and model comparison has been published in the econometrics discipline. Key contributions to this literature include the paper by Diebold and Mariano (DM: 1995) that sets the groundwork for much of the subsequent work...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009766717
forecasting volatility. Key papers in this area include Andersen, Bollerslev, Diebold and Labys (2003), Corsi (2004), Andersen …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10009771770
The Beveridge-Nelson decomposition defines the trend component in terms of the eventual forecast function, as the value the series would take if it were on its long-run path. The paper in-troduces the multistep Beveridge-Nelson decomposition, which arises when the forecast function is obtained...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011523928
A modification of the self-perturbed Kalman filter of Park and Jun (1992) is proposed for the on-line estimation of models subject to parameter in stability. The perturbation term in the updating equation of the state covariance matrix is weighted by the measurement error variance, thus avoiding...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010402289
regression used in Bai and Ng (2008), called the elastic net (Zou and Hastie, 2005). We illustrate our approach by forecasting …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010498420
able to provide more accurate forecasting results than linear models. Therefore, simple autoregressive processes are … observations and autoregression residuals. The proposed forecasting models are applied to a large set of macroeconomic and … autoregression residuals, are somewhat able to provide better forecasting results than simple linear models. Thus, it may be …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010434848
using these models in an out-of-sample forecasting exercise compared with the forecasts obtained based on the usual linear …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010478989
We present a hybrid model for diagnosis and critical time forecasting of real estate bubbles. The model combines two …, 35, and 90 national-level macroeconomic time series and a dynamic forecasting methodology. Empirical results suggests …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10010411858
We propose a new approach to deal with structural breaks in time series models. The key contribution is an alternative dynamic stochastic specification for the model parameters which describes potential breaks. After a break new parameter values are generated from a so-called baseline prior...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011383033