An interactive goal programming approach for assessing scenario probabilities used in long-range forecasting and decision analysis is developed and illustrated using a small numerical example. The method only requires marginal event probability and ordinal or interval first-order conditional...

Shoreline recession as a result of rising sea level has been recognised as a potential near-future hazard by a number of countries. However, the collection of high spatial resolution data, in particular elevation data, is often too costly and time consuming to be applied routinely for a detailed...

A cognitive analysis of subjective probability is applied to the evaluation of techniques used by decision analysts for eliciting probabilities from experts. The construction of a subjective probability requires both the formation of a belief and the assessment of a probability that qualifies...

We resolve a useful formulation of the question how a statistician can coherently incorporate the information in a consulted expert’s probability assessment for an event into a personal posterior probability assertion. Using a framework that recognises the total information available as...

As part of the 50th anniversary of Management Science, the journal is publishing articles that reflect on the past, present, and future of the various subfields the journal represents. In this article, we consider decision analysis research as it has appeared in Management Science. After...

To assess probabilities in decision analysis, and for decision making in general, decision makers must evoke and apply relevant information. Decision analysts have developed a variety of structuring tools to aid decision makers in these tasks, including influence diagrams and knowledge maps....