We suggest a new framework for the use of multi-rater information in the validation of credit rating systems, applicable in any validation process where rating information from different sources is available. As our validation framework does not rely on historical default information it appears...

The Credit Default Swap (CDS) market has both been lauded for its ability to stabilize the financial system through credit risk transfers and been the source of regulatory concern due to its size and lack of transparency. As a decentralized over-the-counter market, detailed information about...

Four years after the last European football championship (EURO) in Austria and Switzerland, the two finalists of the EURO 2008 - Spain and Germany - are again the clear favorites for the EURO 2012 in Poland and the Ukraine. Using a bookmaker consensus rating - obtained by aggregating winning...

This paper introduces ideas and methods for testing for structural change in linear regression models and presents how these have been realized in an R package called strucchange. It features tests from the generalized fluctuation test framework as well as from the F test (Chow test) framework....

Football fans worldwide anticipate the 2018 FIFAWorld Cup that will take place in Russia from 14 June to 15 July 2018. 32 of the best teams from 5 confederations compete to determine the new World Champion. Using a consensus model based on quoted odds from 26 bookmakers and betting exchanges a...