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The purpose of this paper is to present a Romanian CGE model and to test it in drafting a macroeconomic scenario towards 2010. The authors review the main assumptions underlying the CGE model. They calibrate the model, using data from National Accounts for the year 2002. They find that the...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005772654
Using a small-size RMSM model, the authors simulate development alternatives in the medium run, revealing their implications upon the Romanian economy. The reference scenario is characterized by a moderate economic growth, based on the increase in the investements. Both imports exports are...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005272632
Development and Forecasting and the National Bank of Romania in order to update the "Pre-Accession Economic Programme") …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005248485
The first section attempts to define the main problems, taking into account that the productive performance of the Romanian economy is affected by a double constraint – both from a supply side and the from the demand side. Four essential factors are identified on the supply side: the existence...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005248501
This paper proposes a new method of forecasting euro area quarterly real GDP that uses area-wide indicators, which are … information approach outperforms alternative forecasting methods in terms of forecast accuracy. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005181446
We assess the power of artificial neural network models as forecasting tools for monthly inflation rates for 28 OECD … countries. For short out-of-sample forecasting horizons, we find that, on average, for 45% of the countries the ANN models were … models can also serve as a credible tool for forecasting inflation. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005748075
The paper theoretically and empirically investigates the effect of changes in national labourmarket conditions on regional growth from the point of view of local economies. The mechanism of efficiency wage is introduced to a growth model and it is argued that local regions belonging to richer...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10005748083
We introduce a novel quantitative methodology to detect real estate bubbles and forecast their critical end time, which we apply to the housing markets of China's major cities. Building on the Log-Periodic Power Law Singular (LPPLS) model of self-reinforcing feedback loops, we use the quantile...
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011761282
policy is not implemented in the same way and the NNAR models are better for inflation forecasting. …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10012939069
We propose a parsimonious semiparametric method for macroeconomic forecasting during episodes of sudden changes. Based …
Persistent link: https://www.econbiz.de/10011708260