forecasting models using Bayesian model averaging techniques. © 2014 The President and Fellows of Harvard College and the …

sudden shifts in the level of volatility. In an out-of-sample forecasting application we show that the BVAR model with …

made in the first oil price shock of the 1970s. In response to the challenges encountered in forecasting in recent years … and the lessons learnt, the OECD and other international organisations have sought to improve their forecasting techniques …

A recent debate in the forecasting literature revolves around the inability of macroecono-metric models to improve on … equilibrium indeterminacy for quantitative forecasting through standard reduced form forecast models. Exploiting U.S. data on both … of indeterminacy. It is argued that forecasting under indeterminacy with e.g. unrestricted VAR models entails …

This paper introduces the Bank of England's new forecasting platform and provides examples of how it can be applied to … practical forecasting problems. The platform consists of four components: COMPASS, a structural central organising model; a …

output and inflation. In particular, we evaluate the impact of the regime shift on the forecasting performance of reduced … insignificant. The impact on ouput forecasting accuracy would be comparatively much larger if the new monetary union regime is …

Macroeconomic forecasting started around the Second World War as a way to test economic theories, but it also has a …. During the last decades, the economic forecasting and macroeconomic modelling have taken on an increasingly important role in … presenting synthetically the last trends in forecasting and macroeconomic modelling. The next part is devoted to show how new …