While most everyone would agree that valuations matter, the question remains as to whether clients with a long-term outlook (such as those planning for retirement) can hope to act successfully on information about valuations. This article provides favorable evidence based on the historical...

his paper describes a newly extended version of the dynamic micro simulation model SADNAP (Social Affairs Department of the Netherlands Ageing and Pensions model). SADNAP is being developed for calculating the financial and economic implications of the ageing of the population and of the...

The aim of this paper is to provide some new empirical evidence on the determinants of volatility of real exchange rates in emerging countries, focusing on the role of international financial integration in particular. A reduced-form model is estimated using the GMM method for dynamic panels...

In this paper the performance of different information criteria for simultaneous model class and lag order selection is evaluated using simulation studies. We focus on the ability of the criteria to distinguish linear and nonlinear models. In the simulation studies, we consider three different...

The problem of instrument proliferation and its consequences (overfitting of endogenous variables, bias of estimates, weakening of Sargan/Hansen test) are well known. The literature provides little guidance on how many instruments is too many. It is common practice to report the instrument count...

Accurate poverty measurement relies on household consumption data, but such data are often inadequate, outdated or display inconsistencies over time in poorer countries. To address these data challenges, we employ survey-to-survey imputation to produce estimates for several poverty indicators...

En este artículo se pretende analizar si existe histéresis en la tasa natural de desempleo, analizar sus determinantes y sus efectos sobre el mercado laboral para el consolidado de siete á reas metropolitanas en Colombia. Usando los datos de la Encuesta Continua de Hogares (ECH), se...

A new methodology for testing and dating economic bubbles based on a sign test with recursive median adjustment is presented. The methodology, originally proposed by Soo and Shin (2001) to detect random walks, is well-suited, theoretically, to deal with the many features of high-frequency...

En este artículo se presenta una breve reseña deldesarrollo de la teoría de pruebas de hipótesis y seaclaran las principales diferencias entre pruebas paramétricasy no paramétricas. Para ilustrar el uso deunas y otras, se realiza un estudio de simulación, enel que se muestran los errores...