We study the asymptotic behaviour of the extreme values of a stochastic volatility model when the noise follows a generalized error distribution extreme. We provide a Monte Carlo experiment to illustrate th choice of the assumptions. We deal also with the finite sample behaviour of the...

In this paper, we analyze the possible confusion in terms of long memory behavior of the autocorrelation function of a Markov switching model. Such a model is known to have a short memory behavior. Analyzing the value of sum of the transition probabilities and the number of switches inside such...

Some crucial time series of market data, such as electricity spot prices, exhibit long memory, in the sense of slowly-decaying correlations combined with heteroscedasticity. To e able to model such a behaviour, we consider the k-factor GIGARCH process and we propose two methods to address the...

Some crucial time series of market data, such as electricity spot prices, exhibit long memory, in the sense of slowly-decaying correlations combined with heteroscedasticity. To e able to model such a behaviour, we consider the k-factor GIGARCH process and we propose two methods to address the...

This paper presents a 2-regime SETAR model for the volatility with a long-memory process in the first regime and a short-memory process in the second regime. Persistence properties are studied and estimation methods are proposed. Such a process is applied to stock indices and individual asset...

We consider a threshold time series model in order to take into account some stylized facts of the industrial business cycle such as asymmetries in the phase of the cycle. Our aim is to point out some thresholds under (over) which a signal of turning point could be given. First, we introduce the...

This paper presents a 2-regime SETAR model with different longmemory processes in both regimes. We briefly present the memory properties of this model and propose an estimation method. Such a process is applied to the absolute and squared returns of five stock indices. A comparison with simple...

The aim of this paper is to identify the fundamental factors that drive the allowances market and to built an APT-like model in order to provide accurate forecasts for CO2. We show that historic dependency patterns emphasis energy, natural gas, oil, coal and equity indexes as major factors...

Dans ce papier nous précisons la notion de long terme, son impact sur les marchés et les différentes approches pour la mesurer. Nous montrons l'importance d'une mesure robuste en terme de prévisions et de calcul des risques. Après une description des différents concepts de long terme, nous...

The aim of this paper is to show evidence and to quantify with forensic econometric methods the impact of the Value Added Tax fraud on European carbon allowances markets. This fraud mainly occurred at the beginning of between the end of 2008 and the beginning of 2009. In this paper, we explore...