Probability forecasts play an important role in many decision and risk analysis applications. Research and practice over the years have shown that the shift towards distributional forecasts provides a more accurate and appropriate means of capturing risk in models for these applications. This...

En la elección de destinos, la distancia presenta un efecto negativo debido al esfuerzo que supone desplazarse y a que generalmente implica mayores costes. Este artículo analiza si los individuos están dispuestos a recorrer mayores distancias para ir a un destino en el que pueden practicar,...

The accuracy and quality of river forecasts are dependent on the nature of each flood. Less extreme , more common, floods may afford deviations between the predicted forecast and observed stage because the locals may be prepared, based on past experience to deal with the less extreme flood...

Water users along the Murray River, Australia, have traditionally used climatology forecasts of river flows for intra-annual planning of water use and trading. In this paper, we develop and assess the performance of statistical models for forecasting three-month inflow totals for the Murray...

A good prediction is very important for scientific, economic, and administrative purposes. It is therefore necessary to know whether a predictor is skillful enough to predict the future. Given the increased reliance on predictions in various disciplines, a prediction skill index (PSI) is...

The value of accurate weather forecast information is substantial. In this paper we examine competition among forecast providers and its implications for the quality of forecasts. A simple economic model shows that an economic bias geographical inequality in forecast accuracy arises due to the...

This note gives an easily verified necessary and sufficient condition for one probability forecaster to empirically outperform another one in terms of all strictly proper scoring rules.

We propose new scoring rules based on partial likelihood for assessing the relative out-of-sample predictive accuracy of competing density forecasts over a specific region of interest, such as the left tail in financial risk management. By construction, existing scoring rules based on weighted...