Jørgensen’s paper examines the application of the one of the most well established findings in forecasting – namely, the superior accuracy of quantitative models in comparison to judgmental forecasts. Models improved accuracy in 72% of the 136 studies in the meta-analysis by Grove, et al....

At PoliticalForecasting.com, better known as the Pollyvote, the authors combine forecasts from four sources: election polls, a panel of American political experts, the Iowa Electronic Market, and quantitative models. The day before the election, Polly predicted that the Republican ticket’s...

We used 59 biographical variables to create a “bio-index” for forecasting U.S. presidential elections. The bio-index method counts the number of variables for which a candidate rates favourably, and the forecast is that the candidate with the highest score would win the popular vote. The...

In the PollyVote, we evaluated the combination principle to forecast the five U.S. presidential elections between 1992 and 2008. We combined forecasts from three or four different component methods: trial heat polls, the Iowa Electronic Markets (IEM), quantitative models and, in the 2004 and...

At PoliticalForecasting.com, better known as the Pollyvote, the authors combine forecasts from four sources: election polls, a panel of American political experts, the Iowa Electronic Market, and quantitative models. The day before the election, Polly predicted that the Republican ticket's share...

The prevalence of faulty citations impedes the growth of scientific knowledge. Faulty citations include omissions of relevant papers, incorrect references, and quotation errors that misreport findings. We discuss key studies in these areas. We then examine citations to Estimating nonresponse...

Michael Lewis' book and film, Moneyball, provide valuable advice for people involved with the selection and retention of employees. However, judging from some reviews, there is confusion about the message in Moneyball. I describe the problem and the Moneyball solutions here. The solutions are...

Purpose – This paper aims to test whether a structured application of persuasion principles might help improve advertising decisions. Evidence-based principles are currently used to improve decisions in other complex situations, such as those faced in engineering and medicine....

Purpose – This paper aims to respond to issues posed in the four commentaries on Armstrong, Du, Green and Graefe (2016, this issue) regarding the immediate usefulness of that paper’s test of advertisements’ compliance with persuasion principles, and regarding the need for further research....