Finanzmarktdaten wie Zinsen, Aktien- oder Wechselkurse und andere spekulative Preise setzen sich durch verschiedene Besonderheiten von sonstigen ökonomischen Zeitreihendaten ab. Dieser Artikel untersucht die Konsequenzen dieser Besonderheiten für die rationale Bewertung von Finanzinstrumenten...

Prediction in time series models with a trend requires reliable estimation of the trend function at the right end of the observed series. Local polynomial smoothing is a suitable tool because boundary corrections are included implicitly. However, outliers may lead to unreliable estimates, if...

We derive the limiting null distributions of the standard and OLS based CUSUM-tests for structural change of the coecients of a linear regression model in the context of long memory disturbances. We show that both tests behave fundamentally different in a long memory environment, as compared to...

When comparing methods for classification, often the rating relies on their prediction accuracy alone. One reason for this is that this is the aspect that can be most easily measured. Yet, often one wants to learn more about the problem than only how to predict. The interpretation of the...

Most of the literature on combination of forecasts deals with the assumption of unbiased individual forecasts. Here, we consider the case of biased forecasts and discuss two different combination techniques resulting in an unbiased forecast. On the one hand we correct the individual forecasts,...

We use Dynamic Bayesian networks to classify business cycle phases. We compare classifiers generated by learning the Dynamic Bayesian network structure on different sets of admissible network structures. Included are sets of network structures of the Tree Augmented Naive Bayes (TAN) classifiers...