Zusammenfassung Finanzmarktdaten wie Zinsen, Aktien- oder Wechselkurse und andere spekulative Preise setzen sich durch verschiedene Besonderheiten von sonstigen ökonomischen Zeitreihendaten ab. Dieser Artikel untersucht die Konsequenzen dieser Besonderheiten für die rationale Bewertung von...

Summary For decades, there has been a heated debate about whether or not nuclear power plants contribute to childhood cancer in their respective neighbourhoods, with statisticians testifying on both sides. The present paper points to some flaws in the pro-arguments, taking a recent study...

We show that the power of the KPSS-test against integration, as measured by divergence rates of the test statistic under the alternative, remains the same when residuals from an OLS-regression rather than true observations are used. The divergence rate is independent of the order of integration...

The paper considers the Markov-Switching GARCH(1,1)-model with time-varying transition probabilities. It derives sufficient conditions for the square of the process to display long memory and provides some additional intuition for the empirical observation that estimated GARCH-parameters often...

This article takes issue with a recent book by Ziliak and McCloskey (2008) of the same title. Ziliak and McCloskey argue that statistical significance testing is a barrier rather than a booster for empirical research in many fields and should therefore be abandoned altogether. The present...

We investigate the impact of the 20 largest - in terms of insured losses - man-made or natural disasters on various insurance industry stock indices. We show via an event study that insurance sectors worldwide are quite resilient, in a market value sense, to unexpected losses to capital: our...

Der Aufsatz zeigt, dass Kreditausfallprognosen im Sinne von Wahrscheinlichkeitsprognosen in vielfacher Hinsicht in eine Qualitätsreihenfolge überbracht werden können. Insbesondere macht er deutlich, dass die Übereinstimmung von vorhergesagter Ausfallwahrscheinlichkeit und der relativen...