In this paper we analyze the consequences of small labour-market entry cohorts on (un)employment in Western Germany. From a theoretical point of view, small entry cohorts may on the one hand reduce unemployment due to "inverse cohort crowding" or on the other hand increase unemployment if...

The development of employment and unemployment in regional labour markets is known to spatially interdependent. Global Vector-Autoregressive (GVAR) models generate a link between the local and the surrounding labour markets and thus might be useful when analysing and forecasting employment and...

It is broadly accepted that two aspects regarding the modeling strategy are essential for the accuracy of forecast: a parsimonious model focusing on the important structures, and the quality of prospective information. Here, we establish a Global VAR framework, a technique that considers a...

This paper presents an outline of the so-called Shift-Share Regression and an application of this method to the analysis of employment development. The method used is not a deterministic decomposition such as the classical Shift-Share-Analysis, but a powerful, yet simple and flexible econometric...

Your very private job agency: Job referrals based on residential location networks This paper analyzes job referral effects that are based on residential location. We use georeferenced record data for the entire working population (liable to social security) and the corresponding establishments...

Expectations regarding the economic development might be correlated due to various reasons: because individuals use the same public information and similar evaluation methods, and because of social learning or herding amongst peers. We analyse to what extent expectations are driven by herd...

Die Alterung der Bevölkerung werde die Arbeitslosenzahlen in Deutschland deutlich sinken lassen - so wird mitunter argumentiert. Weil demografische Verschiebungen bereits in der Vergangenheit zu beobachten waren, wird in diesem Kurzbericht untersucht, ob in den letzten 20 Jahren ein...

Zur Existenz und Verbreitung von Niedriglohnbeschäftigung liegen vielfältige Forschungsbefunde vor. Dagegen gibt es wenige wissenschaftliche Erkenntnisse darüber, wo Niedriglohnbezieher ansässig sind. Georeferenzierte Daten erlauben es erstmals, ihre räumliche Verteilung über Städte...