This paper proposes a unifying theory of forecasting in the form of a Golden Rule of Forecasting. The Golden Rule is to be conservative. A conservative forecast is consistent with cumulative knowledge about the present and the past. To be conservative, forecasters must seek all knowledge...

A persistent increase in the unemployment rate ignites speculations about whether the changes to unemployment are structural or cyclical. The New Zealand economy has been through major restructuring since the mid-1980s. The labour market’s institutional changes were the last in the sequence of...

This study examine the long run as well as short run relationship between China’s macroeconomic factors such as industrial production index, imports, exports, inflation rate and interest rate and Shanghai Composite Index and to explore which macroeconomic variables have significant influence...

In this paper we model the long-run relationship between per capita CO2 and per capita income for the Spanish economy over the period 1857-2007. According to the Environmental Kuznets Curve (ECK) the relationship between the two variables has an inverted-U shape. However, previous studies for...

This study presumes merger waves as a periodical wave phenomenon and fits a continuous function with five parameters to the annual time series data of US mergers over a 116 year period. The function describes the annual number of mergers as the sum of an exponential trend term with a doubling...

In this note we provide justification for some Monte Carlo results presented by Elder and Kennedy (2001). In particular we show that the severe size distortions observed by Elder and Kennedy are due to the presence of nuisance parameters in the data generation process, but ignored in the test...

This paper studies the estimation of time series regression when both regressors and disturbances have long memory. In contrast with the frequency domain estimation as in Robinson and Hidalgo (1997), we propose to estimate the same regression model with discrete wavelet transform (DWT) of the...

The properties of the 'change in persistence'' tests developed by Leybourne et al. (2003) are considered in the presence of structural change under the null. Interestingly, it is found that while breaks in drift result in undersizing, breaks in level lead to severe oversizing. The implications...

This paper aims to investigate the volatility spillovers among selected emerging economies' sovereign credit default swaps (SCDSs), including those of Saudi Arabia, Russia, China, Indonesia, South Africa, Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey. Using data from January 2010 to July 2023, we apply the...

Our goal in this paper is twofold: First, evaluate the impact on crime of the restriction of late-night alcohol sales in Bogotá; and second, quantify the causal effect of problematic alcohol consumption on different crime categories. Using a control group strategy, we explore time-series and...