We consider which readily observable characteristics of individual stocks (e.g., option implied volatility, accounting data, analyst data) may be used to forecast subsequent extreme price movements. We are the first to explicitly consider the predictive influence of option implied volatility in...

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to present theoretical and empirical support that the fear component associated with rare events has an impact on risk premium and market returns. Design/methodology/approach: Extension of jump-diffusion model to extract the fear component from...

This paper investigates the impact of Twitter attention, measured by abnormal number of tweets on stock trading activities. We find that Twitter attention has predictive power for future stock volatility and trading volume. A heightened number of tweets is followed by high volatility and trading...

We provide evidence that the stock market response to macroeconomic news weakens in times of high investor sentiment. The reaction to macroeconomic information is 50 percent weaker in times of elevated bullish investor sentiment, relative to periods of low sentiment. This dampening effect holds...

We provide evidence that the release of the unemployment rate announcement unconditionally leads to financial market uncertainty resolution in the stock, treasury, commodity, and foreign currency markets. The finding is economically valuable. A simple daily strategy of selling the 10-year...