We use past forecast errors to construct confidence intervals around Australian Government Budget forecasts of key economic and fiscal variables. These confidence intervals provide an indication of the extent of uncertainty around the point estimate forecasts presented in the Budget.

We use past forecast errors to construct confidence intervals around Australian Government Budget forecasts of key economic and fiscal variables. These confidence intervals provide an indication of the extent of uncertainty around the point estimate forecasts presented in the Budget.

With China''s share in global trade increasing rapidly, some argued in 2002-03 that China was exporting deflation to other countries as it was dumping cheap goods in mature markets. Later, others argued that China was sucking in commodities and thus causing sharp increases in global prices. The...

Treasury’s forecasting framework has evolved over the past 21 years from the outlook for a single financial year to the outlook for the Australian economy 40 years ahead for intergenerational analysis. A constant through this evolution has been the sharp distinction between the methodologies...

In 2009 the Australian government delivered approximately $8 billion in direct payments to households. These payments were pre- announced and randomly allocated to households based on postal codes over a 5-week period. We exploit this random allocation to estimate the causal response of...