Global supply chains enhance value, but are subject to governance problems and encourage evasive practices that deter sustainability, especially in developing countries. This article proposes that the precontractual environment, where parties are interested in trade but have not yet negotiated...

We build an information-based two-country general equilibrium model. There are two dividend processes with correlated growth rates. Agents observe a global public signal informative about both growth rates. We first let agents rationally process information, and then we allow for reasonable...

We estimate a multivariate early-warning model to assess the usefulness of private credit and other macro-financial variables in predicting banking sector vulnerabilities. Using data for 23 European countries, we find that global variables and in particular global credit growth are strong...

The United States recently proposed to sell Saudi Arabia advanced weaponry worth 20 billion dollars over the next 10 years. The volume of trade, while significant, is second in the news headline that the United States would provide Saudi Arabia with precision-guided bombs, upgrades to its...

Reputational theory of conflict behavior dates back to Schelling’s seminal work on bargaining and continues to find both its advocates and critics to date. The authors do not take sides in this debate about the relevance of reputation for bargaining behavior but rather take a modified...

According to the classical liberal belief, trade, which economically benefits countries, creates ties binding the interests of countries and reduces conflict. While the vast majority of the empirical literature supports this view, recent research questions these findings by also considering the...