This paper presents an empirical analysis of excessive deficit spells in the European Union using transition data methods. Probabilities of transition between excessive and nonexcessive deficit states are estimated with time-varying macroeconomic covariates as explanatory variables. The...

This memorandum provides an overview of the Asian financial crisis of 1997-98. It reviews its evolution, causes, and consequences and examines the reaction by (inter)national policymakers. Macroeconomic indicators were deteriorating before the crisis, but it is debatable whether that alone can...

The authors analyze the nature of economic shocks hitting European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) member countries from 1991 to 2004, as well as for two sub-periods before and after the launch of EMU. To this end, they first evaluate the relative importance of symmetric versus asymmetric...

This paper compares Denmark’s growth performance to that of the other 18 non-Eurozone OECD economies during 2008-12. Denmark is the only country with a fixed exchange rate regime; the other 18 countries all have flexible exchange rates, mostly as part of an inflation-targeting framework. At the...

In this paper a model connecting fiscal and external imbalances in Euro peripheral countries is presented. The underlying idea is that, after the negative shock of the 2007 financial crisis, the current account position constitutes the main element in originating different behavior of foreign...

This paper estimates the effect of having joined the monetary union on the income per capita of six early adopters of the euro using the synthetic control method. Our estimates suggest that while the income per capita of Belgium, France, Germany and Italy would have been higher without the euro,...

A globális pénzügyi válság talán legsúlyosabb esete Görögország. A kelet-európai országok transzformációs válságát idéző visszaesés mértéke önmagában is magyarázatra szorul, ám az eset elemzése két ok miatt is túlmutathat a görög válságon. Egyrészt a hatalmas...

The aim of this overview article is to examine and assess monetary issues crucial for the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) entry strategy. The optimum currency area (OCA) criteria are not used in assessing Polish suitability for the EMU, as they were not decisive in the process of the EMU...

South Africa's 40 years of experience with capital controls on residents and non-residents (1961-2001) reads like a collection of examples of perverse unanticipated effects of legislation and regulation.We show that the presence of capital controls on residents and non-residents, enabled the...

This paper provides a selective survey of some recent literature assessing exchange rate credibility through bayesian or nonhinear econometrjc frameworks. The empirical evidence from this literature suggests two main conclusions: one in retrospect, concerning the past experience of France in the...