We establish a set of novel empirical facts concerning cross-section distributions of inflation expectations reported in surveys. Almost all the variation in expectations about their mean may be summarized via three factors we call disagreement, skew, and shape. We adopt a functional principal...

This paper proposes a simple and model-consistent method for combining forecasts generated by structural micro-founded models and judgmental forecasts. The method also enables the judgmental forecasts to be interpreted through the lens of the model. We illustrate the proposed methodology with a...

This paper proposes a simple and model-consistent method for combining forecasts generated by structural micro-founded models and judgmental forecasts. The method also enables the judgmental forecasts to be interpreted through the lens of the model. We illustrate the proposed methodology with a...