We apply a noisy signal approach (Morris and Shin, 1998, 2001) to the search model of a barter economy (Diamond, 1982), whose equilibria is equilibrium with and without production. Even under the existence of noisy signals, it is difficult to eliminate multiple equilibria in general because, to...

The Japanese economy in the 1990s experienced a substantial decrease in the nominal interest rate. The positive effect on the business investment, however, should have been canceled out, since deflationary expectations raised the real cost of capital. In this study, we address this unexplored...

This paper introduces the Carlson-Parkin [1975] method (henceforth, CP) and its variants, which derive an inflation expectation series using actual inflation and published aggregates from a survey on individual economic agents, to beginners. We use the survey results from the Bank of Japan's...

This paper introduces the Carlson-Parkin [1975] method (henceforth, CP) and its variants, which derive an inflation expectation series using actual inflation and published aggregates from a survey on individual economic agents, to beginners. We use the survey results from the Bank of Japan's...

This study investigates changes in the contemporary Japanese economics and the effects of macroeconomic policies in the 1990s. We estimate several vector autoregression (VAR) models employing data detrended by different methods. This paper presents three major findings: First, there is a gradual...

Japan has experienced prolonged economic stagnation throughout the 1990s and beyond. The government's monetary policies do not to seem to have been effective in eradicating deflation and increasing the money supply. A decrease in the money multiplier is said to be one reason for this. This paper...

The money multiplier is in a continuous downward trend now since the bubble burst, and, in addition, the trend has accelerated after 2000. It is said that the monetary policy is difficult because the money multiplier has declined. To think about the monetary policy for the future, we should...

Japan's economic growth rate has dropped from three percent in the first half of the 1980s to one percent in the 1990s. We can call this decline the "Great Stagnation." In spite of its importance, there is no agreement on what caused the Great Stagnation. First, we briefly surveyed various...

The paper aims at quantifying the higher-order expectations that Keynes (1936) compared to the beauty contest, applying a measure of relative entropy to the Japanese ESP Forecast Survey data during the deflationary period. We conclude that during the deflationary period from June 2009 to April...

This paper examines the factors that lie behind the couples' declining number of children and desire for children, associating among living environment, economic situation, and husband and wife’s consciousness and sense of value. Data for this paper was compiled through a web-based...