increase markedly. DIW Berlin calculates that global produc- tion will shrink by 4.0 percent in 2020. During the forecast …

, first, at ranking various forecasting methods in terms of forecast accuracy and, second, at checking whether methods …Forecasting the world economy is a difficult task given the complex interrelationships within and across countries …. This paper proposes a number of approaches to forecast short-term changes in selected world economic variables and aims …

An essential element of the work of the Fund is to monitor and forecast international trade. This paper uses SWIFT … messages on letters of credit, together with crude oil prices and new export orders of manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index … (PMI), to improve the short-term forecast of international trade. A horse race between linear regressions and machine …

, particularly affected by foreign trade. DIW Berlin’s forecast indicates global economic growth of 3.7 percent for 2019 and 3 … situation in Italy are causing uncertainty. Against this backdrop, monetary policy is likely to be expansionary in the forecast …