Theorem (CLT) provides the 'fat tail' uncertainty. In this paper, we provide a review of the empirical results obtained 'fat … tails puzzle' using innovative method of Yuri Gabovich based on the rate of convergence in CLT to the normal distribution …, which is called G-bounds. Constructed G-bounds evaluate risk in the financial markets more carefully than models based on …

The paper develops a tail risk forecasting model that incorporates the wealth of economic and financial information … available to risk managers. The approach can be viewed as a regularized extension of the two-stage GARCH-EVT model of McNeil and … extreme value distribution of risk. We use a rich data set from the US equity market to explore when this additional …

The present article deals with intra-horizon risk in models with jumps. Our general understanding of intra-horizon risk … quantifying market risk by strictly relying on point-in-time measures cannot be deemed a satisfactory approach in general. Instead …, we argue that complementing this approach by studying measures of risk that capture the magnitude of losses potentially …

Financial risk managers routinely use non-linear time series models to predict the downside risk of the capital under … prediction and the evaluation of downside risk. Emphasis is given to the two key financial downside risk measures: Value-at-Risk …

We propose and backtest a multivariate Value-at-Risk model for financial returns based on Tukey's g-and-h distribution …-and-h distributed residuals to three European stock indices and provide results of out-of-sample Value-at-Risk backtests. We find that …

credit risk management. Particularly, analysis of multidimensional credit risk models is continued from the previous …

not yet known to the Russian reader — financial econometrics. Terminology and concepts of different kinds of risk …

estimators of market risk. Despite advances in the theory and practice of evaluating risk, existing measures are notoriously poor … extreme value theory (EVT) to propose a multivariate estimation procedure for value-at-risk (VaR) and expected shortfall (ES …The catastrophic failures of risk management systems in 2008 bring to the forefront the need for accurate and flexible …

risk measure and loss functions. The results indicate that the method based on the conditional Extreme Value Theory (EVT … must calculate the market risk capital requirements based on the Expected Shortfall (ES) measure, replacing the Value at … Risk (VaR) measure. In the financial literature, there are many papers dedicated to compare VaR approaches but there are …

This paper investigates whether multivariate crash risk (MCRASH), defined as exposure to extreme realizations of … returns than stocks with low MCRASH. The premium is not explained by linear factor exposures, alternative downside risk … measures or stock characteristics. Extending market-based definitions of crash risk to other well-established factors helps to …