. In particular, the consequences of inflation having discrete breaks in mean, for example caused by supply shocks and the … dynamic inflation terms of the Phillips curve. We suggest a method to account for the breaks in mean and obtain meaningful and … from more traditional approaches, most recently undertaken by Cogley and Sbordone (2008). -- Phillips curve ; inflation …

We show that the New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) outperforms standard benchmarks in forecasting U.S. inflation once … frequency-domain information is taken into account. We do so by decomposing the time series (of inflation and its predictors …) into several frequency bands and forecasting separately each frequency component of inflation. The largest statistically …

Policymakers and researchers see inflation characterized by cyclical fluctuations driven by changes in resource … utilization and temporary shocks, around a trend influenced by inflation expectations. We study the in-sample inflation dynamics … and forecast inflation out-of-sample by analyzing a New Keynesian Phillips Curve (NKPC) in the frequency domain. In …

Phillips curves with different expectation formation processes for Brazil and the USA. Other than the standard rational … separate inclusion of a labor market in the model helps to anchor inflation even in a situation of adaptive expectations, a … positive output gap and inflation above target. The estimation results show that the adaptive learning model does a better job …

Inflation dynamics have been difficult to explain over the last decade. This paper explores if a more comprehensive … treatment of globalization can help. CPI inflation has become more synchronized around the world since the 2008 crisis, but core … and wage inflation have become less synchronized. Global factors (including commodity prices, world slack, exchange rates …

This paper forecasts inflation in China over a 12-month horizon. The analysis runs 15 alternative models and finds that …

We run out-of-sample forecasts for the inflation rate of 15 euro-zone countries using a NAIRU Phillips curve and a …

In this paper, we study the fit and the predictive performance of the Phillips curve for euro area inflation with … regard to different inflation series, time periods and predictor variables, notably different global factors. We compare the … prices, global consumer inflation, global economic slack and foreign demand. We find that traditional global indicators such …